This post and the charts below are the result of an interaction with a respected analyst. The index, contrary to many, is NOT showing any immediate topping out signs despite the US Government shutdown. It is showing strength. No doubt, a major resistance is close by in the zone of 16100-16600, but that doesn't negate the trend which is strongly up.
The chart is self-explanatory. Still, a few points -
1) The corrections are getting smaller and the last correction is actually very shallow. It is more a time correction than a price correction, which is sign of strength.
2) Taking the 4 years Presidential cycle, the post election year tends to make a major bottom in October-November & rally (Check the lowermost chart).
3) The current rally of 2009-till now is a faster rally than the rallies of 1995-2000 and 2003-2007. Another sign of comparative strength.
4) When the price breaks a channel but soon gets back in, it tends to break the opposite boundary of the channel. We will see if the false break on the downside of the black channel (on the chart) produces a break on the upside now.
5) The fractal seen in the secular bullish chart (Chart below).
Dow Jones 100 years chart
Chart Courtesy - www.seasonalcharts.com