Chart Dreams

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

USDINR - Analysis & A Trade in Charts & Tweets

Contrary to popular belief, blogging is not easy. So I post my charts & thoughts mainly by tweets. My last article on my main trading instrument USDINR was posted on 4^th April (Article Link). Now I felt necessary to bring all those in one place, to make the whole process more coherent and easier to see the evolution. The focus here is on the larger picture of USDINR & a positional trade, so the extreme short-term trades, charts & comments on other instruments have been excluded. For brevity, only the current month’s tweets have been considered. You can see the time & date of each comment & chart in the tweets themselves.

First trading day of the month, USDINR was continuing its fall from 54.45, swing high made just 2 days back.

2nd May, 2013

6th May, 2013

USDINR was moving up after making a low at 53.65.

10th May, 2013

The attached chart was this -

11th May, 2013

13th May, 2013

In hindsight, the choice of SL was terrible. You can't keep SL above the 61.8% retracement level when buying in dips. So the SL trigger would mean the ideal level for buying/adding for the positional trade has been reached. Market was to show me that the hard way. I kicked myself, or tried at least.

14th May, 2013

Price bounced from 54.53, exactly the 61.8% retracement level. Swing trade triggered SL, Positional trade added again. Price moving up after that felt like a consolation prize.