Wednesday, May 22, 2013
Contrary to popular belief, blogging is not easy. So I post my charts & thoughts mainly by tweets. My last article on my main trading instrument USDINR was posted on 4th April (Article Link). Now I felt necessary to bring all those in one place, to make the whole process more coherent and easier to see the evolution. The focus here is on the larger picture of USDINR & a positional trade, so the extreme short-term trades, charts & comments on other instruments have been excluded. For brevity, only the current month’s tweets have been considered. You can see the time & date of each comment & chart in the tweets themselves.
First trading day of the month, USDINR was continuing its fall from 54.45, swing high made just 2 days back.
2nd May, 2013
6th May, 2013
USDINR was moving up after making a low at 53.65.
10th May, 2013
The attached chart was this -
11th May, 2013
13th May, 2013
In hindsight, the choice of SL was terrible. You can't keep SL above the 61.8% retracement level when buying in dips. So the SL trigger would mean the ideal level for buying/adding for the positional trade has been reached. Market was to show me that the hard way. I kicked myself, or tried at least.
14th May, 2013
Price bounced from 54.53, exactly the 61.8% retracement level. Swing trade triggered SL, Positional trade added again. Price moving up after that felt like a consolation prize.
16th May, 2013
Price was moving in a 30 paisa range of 54.70-55.
20 May, 2013
Market was conspiring to pull me back in its fold. And I had to confess -
The chart in its entirety, showing how the price was going from strength to strength -
Market made high at exactly the line.
21st May, 2013
But later that day, USDINR broke out above 55.15 & didn't look back.
22nd May, 2013
Not much to add at this moment except to buy every dip.
The chart -
And that's it for now folks. Anyone interested in the Long-term picture can change the later part of this old article - Article Link